IMF says AI spending keeps world growth near 3% despite energy shock

Investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure is keeping global growth at about 3%, offsetting the drag from the energy supply shock, and Asian economies that make the hardware are among the main beneficiaries, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in Bangkok on Monday.

Georgieva called the AI boom “a demand shock, an investment shock”. She said it could add between half a point and a full percentage point to growth in advanced Asian economies, and between 0.2 and 0.8 of a point in emerging Asia. “That shift into higher gear is what is keeping the world economy growing at around 3%, despite the fact we are being dragged down by the energy supply shock,” she said.

Her remarks opened the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group, held in Bangkok from 12 to 18 October. Thailand last hosted the meetings in 1991. The IMF forecast global growth of 3% for 2026 in July and will publish an updated World Economic Outlook on Tuesday. Georgieva’s comments suggest the headline figure will not move much, though she did not say so explicitly.

The energy shock she referred to has shaped the fund’s year. In April, as the Middle East war pushed up energy costs and disrupted supply chains, Georgieva said at least a dozen countries could seek new IMF loan programmes, with demand for fund support estimated at $20bn to $50bn. That month the IMF, the International Energy Agency and the World Bank set up a joint coordination group to respond to the war’s economic and energy fallout. An IMF analysis published on 1 October described the shock as persisting and said governments were responding with a wide range of measures.

Against that backdrop, Georgieva presented AI investment as the main source of support for global demand. She said the United States, China and India are the most important producers in the AI supply chain, but that many of the companies building the physical infrastructure are in Asia. She named Thailand, the host country, as an example.

She also described AI as a “slow-moving tsunami” with deep consequences for employment, education and public finances. The fund estimates that AI could eventually augment, downgrade or eliminate about 40% of jobs. She expects a shift in income from labour to capital, which would affect how governments raise tax revenue. An initial IMF study found that 10% of US jobs already require AI skills. Routine, repetitive work is shrinking, she said, while low-paid employment is growing in two sectors: construction and data centres.

World Bank President Ajay Banga, who has made jobs the central theme of his presidency, said the bank was concentrating on what he called “small AI”: tools that do not depend on large language models. He said they could bring large productivity gains to farmers, health systems and teachers in emerging markets.

Singapore’s president, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, speaking at the same session, pointed to a more immediate problem. “The first rung in employment, your first job upon graduation, is now seeing less demand,” he said, adding that governments would have to deal with it soon. He also warned that AI could produce a “new divergence” in growth and job creation between advanced and developing economies. “AI is going to widen the divergence if we are too passive about it,” he said. He urged governments to use the technology to create jobs that people can do well and that still offer a path up the career ladder.

Some 18,000 people are expected to attend this week, including finance officials from the IMF’s 191 member countries. Not all ministers are coming. According to Reuters, citing people familiar with the matter, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Spanish Finance Minister Arcadi España will stay at home to deal with domestic priorities.

The meetings will focus on the energy shock and high public debt alongside AI. The IMF’s October Fiscal Monitor, published under the title “Taxing Better to Boost Growth”, deals with the revenue questions Georgieva raised. Tuesday’s World Economic Outlook will give the fund’s revised growth numbers, including how much of the AI investment effect it builds into its forecasts for Asia.